I refer the reader to previous articles on my NFL playoff predictions for the philosophy that guides me. In a nutshell, the teams that win the NFL playoffs are teams that can complete long passes. The best defensive teams rarely win. Teams with run-based offenses never win. What you have to do to win a Superbowl is throw the ball down the field.
For
this reason, my primary tool is a number I call AYP, or “adjusted yards per
pass.” This is the number of yards gained passing during the season
divided by the number of passes thrown, and adjusted downward for the number of
interceptions thrown. A very good team will have an AYP over 7 for
the season. An AYP of 6 is pretty good. Teams with an AYP
under 5 do not play games in the month of February.
Since AYP can also be calculated for a
team’s pass defense, I do so, mostly so I can look at the extremes: who has a
really good pass defense, and who has a bad one. I also glance at point differentials over
the course of the season.
Finally, I note how each playoff team
did in blowouts (defined as a game decided by 11 or more points), during the
season. When one good team beats another
good team with a last-second field-goal, I’m not always sure what it means. But when a good team beats another NFL team
by 28, it tells me something.
Every
year, I divide the contestants into three categories.
PRETENDERS are those teams with very
little chance of winning a game. This
year, there are eight of them: Jacksonville, the LA Chargers, Baltimore, Miami,
Minnesota, Tampa, the Giants, and Seattle.
Miami is on this list only because Tua Tagovailoa, the best quarterback
in the NFL this year, is barred from playing because of a recent
concussion. If he were playing against
Buffalo in the opening weekend, Miami would be listed here as a contender. Without him, Miami has little chance in the
tournament.
COULD
GET LUCKY is where I put the teams that (follow me here), could get
lucky. Some of them, perhaps most, will win a game or
two. They tend to have something wonderful going for them or they
are peaking at the right time or they have a relatively easy path to the Superbowl. This
year, Cincinnati and Dallas qualify.
CONTENDERS are the teams that are good
enough to be in the Superbowl. This
year, there are no surprises: KC, Buffalo, Philly and SF.
Seattle @ San Francisco (-10)
Since October 30, San Fran has won ten
games in a row, seven of them by blow-out margins. The team AYP is a 7.0, which puts it among
the elites. They are among the best pass
defenses in the NFL as well, and the team has outscored its opponents by over
10 points per game. On September 18, the
49ers beat Seattle 27 – 7 in San Francisco, then beat them again in Seattle on
December 15 by a score of 21 – 13.
One interesting aspect of the Niners’
run is that it doesn’t seem to matter who is playing QB. Jimmy Garoppolo had a passer rating of 103
this year, third best in the league (along with a 7.3 AYP), but he was injured
in mid-December. Brock Purdy then stepped in, however, and posted a 6.9 AYP and
a 107.3 QB rating while winning the last four games.
Seattle’s season has been a success by
any measure. They have apparently found
a replacement for Russell Wilson in Geno Smith, who earned a 100.9 QB rating (in
something of a dink-and-dunk offense) but got them to the playoffs with a 9 – 8
record.
It ends here, however. Seattle has been improving throughout the
season, so I would hesitate to lay the 10 points against them, but this should
be a relatively easy win for SF. I pass
on the spread.
LA Chargers (-2) @ Jacksonville
The wrong team is favored. Take the Jaguars. After all, they beat the Chargers 38-10 in
Week 3.
Neither one of these teams are going
much further, but somebody has to win this game. Their AYP’s are about the same (5th
and 6th in the AFC), and their pass defenses put up similar numbers
as well. Jacksonville has a better
record in blowouts and has outscored its opponents by three points/game while
the Chargers have not outscored their opponents at all. And the game is in Florida where the Jags have
beaten some decent teams like Vegas, Baltimore, Tennessee, and Dallas.
Trivia: the Chargers rushing defense in
2022 gave up 5.2 yards per carry. This
is the biggest number since the 1959 Redskins.
Miami @ Buffalo (-13.5)
I strongly suspect that the only
reason Tua is not playing for Miami in this game is NFL politics and PR. After his concussion two weeks ago, he has
apparently become the league’s poster child for head injuries. Especially after the Hamlin heart attack, the
NFL feels it MUST demonstrate its caring and nurturing nature. So Miami has to lose this game.
Tua Tagovailoa was the best QB in the
NFL this year, with a quarterback rating of 105.5 (Mahomes was second at
105.2). His AYP was an almost unbelievable
7.9 (Mahomes was 7.2). Josh Allen, who
did not have his best year, posted a 96.6 quarterback rating and a 6.3
AYP. With Tua playing, Miami would have
had a real shot at winning this game.
Buffalo’s strength is mostly on
defense, and they were one of two teams (SF was the other) to give up less than
300 points this season. Defense is not
what wins playoff games however, so I remain suspicious of the Bills’ chances
to go all the way. I am also suspicious
of their ability to cover a 13.5 spread against a team as good as the Dolphins
have been.
Take the points.
NYG @ Minnesota (-3)
How do you achieve a 13-4 record while
being outscored by your opponents? Just
asking. Of course, the Giants were also outscored this year.
These are probably the two worst teams
in the playoffs. Their AYPs are about 6,
and that is near the bottom of the list.
They also have the two worst pass defenses in the tournament. Also, both had negative records in blowouts (i.e,
both teams lost more lop-sided games than they won).
Minnesota was 8-1 at home, including a
27-24 victory over the Giants on Christmas Eve.
That game seems as good a way as any to predict the outcome. Look for a close game with the Vikings
managing to eke out a victory.
Pass.
Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-10)
This line opened at 6.5. It is now 10, which reflects the perception
that the prospects for Baltimore are rapidly declining.
Lamar Jackson suffered a knee injury
in Baltimore’s December 4 win over the Broncos, and missed the last five games
of the regular season. His replacement,
Tyler Huntley, did a serviceable job through four starts, but sustained a
concussion on January 1 (“Yo Tyler---what year is it?”). Anthony Brown then started in Week 18 and
stunk out the joint with two interceptions in a 27-16 loss to Cincinnati. Though Huntley has not been declared “out”
for this game, it seems almost certain Anthony Brown will start, and the Ravens
will lose.
On the other side, Joe Burrow will
probably never replicate the numbers he posted in 2021 (108.3 quarterback
rating, 7.5 AYP), but his 2022 season put him 6th on the list of NFL
QBs. Also, Cincy is coming into the
tournament the way any Bungles fan would like them to. The team was 4-4 on Halloween and won their
last eight games. They have outscored
their opponents by 6 points per game and were 7-1 in blow-outs.
Ten points is a lot in a playoff game
but I’m going to lay them here. Take the
Cincinnati Bengals.
Dallas (-2.5) @ Tampa
Besides Minnesota and the Giants, the
other possible choice for “worst team in the tournament” is Tampa Bay, which
won the dreadful NFC South with a losing record and was outscored by almost 3
points per game. The high point of Tampa’s
season was opening day, September 11, when they crushed the Cowboys, in Texas,
19-3. Since then, the only playoff team
they have beaten was Seattle, in November, while taking blowout beatings from
Carolina, San Francisco, Cincinnati and Atlanta. This must be Brady’s worst season. He finished 18th in quarterback
ratings with a 5.8 AYP.
And on the other side, you have perennial
mutt Dak Prescott with his 1-3 career playoff record (Brady is 35-12). This year, Prescott was 16th in quarterback
rating, not much better than Brady.
AYP for Dallas and Tampa are about
even---they are 6th and 7th among the NFC playoff
teams. By all other measures, however,
Dallas has an edge. Their pass defense
is significantly better than Tampa’s.
The Dallas record in blowouts is 7-2 while Tampa’s is 1-4. Dallas has also outscored its opponents by
over a touchdown.
There are analysts who will tell you
Tom Brady is still Tom Brady and he will rise from the ashes of his 2022 season
to sparkle in the playoffs. But I don’t
believe it. The GOAT is dead.
I will hold my nose and ask Dak
Prescott to cover the spread for me. I’m
betting the Boyz.
Copyright2023MichaelKubacki
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Let’s go Duckie!!!! Let’s Run it up!!!!!!! No gambooollll no future!!!!!!
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