CORONA---Philly Update

           Two entries ago, I noted that the COVID fatality rate in Philadelphia now has little to do with actual deaths caused by the virus, but is instead a function of the city’s testing protocols and the super-inclusive definition of a “COVID fatality” as the death of a person who once tested positive for the virus.

 

          Though the pandemic in this city ended in July 2020, Philly will continue to report about 60 COVID deaths per month indefinitely since

 

          1) Virtually every sick, elderly person who is about to die will get a COVID test in their last two or three months of life,

 

          2) Anyone who dies with a recent positive COVID test result will be characterized as a COVID fatality regardless of the actual cause of death, and

 

          3) About 1100 elderly people die in Philadelphia every month, and with a positivity rate for tests of 6%, about 66 of them will have recently tested positive.

 

          Now that the positivity rate for tests in Philadelphia has jumped from 6% to 11%, the number of fatalities designated as “COVID deaths” can be expected to jump as well.  In October, it was 66.   November will end soon, with 90 – 100 designated deaths.  In December, with a full month of the new 11% positivity rate, the city’s Health Department will report around 125 people dead from the coronavirus.

 

          Until the positivity rate changes again.

 

Copyright2020MichaelKubacki