On
Friday, the Department of Health reported that Philly has had a total of 35,582
confirmed COVID cases. In a city of 1.5
million people, this means that about 2% of Philadelphians are known to have
caught it. For some, the only evidence
was a positive test. For others, the
virus was fatal.
The 2%
rate is common throughout the northern US---New York is 2%, Illinois is 2.2%,
South Dakota is 2%. (Most European
countries are 1% or below.) Of course, these
are just the “confirmed” cases.
Undoubtedly, there were people with very mild bouts, who perhaps woke up
in the middle of the night with a fever but were fine by morning, so they never
went to a doctor or got tested. How
many? We cannot know, but let’s say the
number of real cases was actually ten times the number of confirmed cases. That would mean 20% of the Philly population
caught the virus in some fashion. It
seems like a large estimate, but let’s use 20% as our figure for the maximum
number of residents who were touched.
I like 20%
as the maximum infection rate because it has other evidence to support it. Remember the Diamond Princess? This was the cruise ship locked down in
Yokohama back in February. It took weeks
to get everyone tested and moved ashore and repatriated. There had been no mask-wearing or distancing
prior to its quarantine, and there is little chance to escape the close
quarters of a cruise ship. All 3711
passengers and crew, in other words, were exposed to the virus on board, yet
only 712, or 19.2%, caught the bug.
There were many other “accidental quarantine” situations involving
cruise ships and dormitories and military barracks (including a very recent one
at the University of Wisconsin), and the infection rate in these types of petri
dishes is generally somewhere in the 20% range.
That
leaves 80% of us who never caught the disease.
Why not?
Well,
it’s not like we didn’t get the chance to.
Here in Philly, back in April and May, there were often a thousand COVID
patients in Philly hospitals. Average
deaths in the city were thirty per day for those two months. It seemed there was no escape from the virus.
But
then the deaths and the serious cases just dropped off the table. On June 19, the Department of Public Health,
which had given daily reports on hospitalizations, announced that “Hospitals
are not under strain and are returning to normal operations, so going forward
we will no longer include these figures in the weekly press releases.”
And
that’s what happened everywhere, at least in northern climes like the upper U.S.
and all of Europe. (The pattern in
warmer places is slightly different.)
The curve shows a rapid rise and a peak that lasts for two to four
weeks, and then a fairly swift decline in serious outcomes. The numbers will vary from place to place but
the curve looks the same, regardless of whether or when there were lockdowns,
mask edicts, school closings, etc. New
York looks like Sweden which looks like Italy which looks like Germany which looks
like South Dakota.
Why?
When
deaths and hospitalizations go from hundreds a day to one a day, it is because
the virus cannot “find” vulnerable people.
It happens because there are almost no potential victims left. Almost everyone had either caught the damn
thing or they were never going to catch it because they were immune. That’s why in June and July, the serious
cases and the deaths almost disappeared.
It’s why the ventilators went into storage closets. The virus did not leave Philadelphia. It just couldn’t find victims even though
there were still at least 80% of us untouched by it.
We’re
immune. At least four out of five of us
have been immune from the beginning.
There is no other explanation.
There
is certainly no other explanation for why I personally remain in the pink of
health. While there may be a few people
in this city who completely isolated themselves from any contact with the bug
(though I don’t personally know any), I am not one of them.
I have
worked continuously at my extremely busy big-box store through this entire
year. Though there are signs all over
the sales floor and frequent announcements, social distancing is all but
impossible. Every day, I pass within
inches of dozens of customers and fellow workers. Masks were not required until April, and most
people wear them, but they are frequently pulled down to the mouth or neck. A show is made of spraying shopping carts
with sanitizer before the customer takes one, but people touch everything else
in the store, constantly, and it would be impossible to clean every surface.
In
addition, except when I am at work, I never wear a mask in public though I am
required to do so by our Governor’s executive edict. When an employee at a bank or supermarket I
am visiting comes up to me and asks me to wear one, I do, but usually nobody says
anything. Though I’ve known from the
beginning that mask-wearing is ineffective in curbing respiratory virus
infections, I initially followed the requirements just to be polite. No more.
The mask has become a political fetish object for the totalitarian Left,
and that makes me angry, of course.
However, the main reason for my resistance is that there is simply no
reason for me to wear one. I’ve been
exposed repeatedly---every day probably---and I never got sick. I pose no risk to anyone. I’M IMMUNE.
And I’m
not the only one. All of my co-workers
are in the same position, along with all the other workers at big-box stores
and supermarkets. A few of us have
gotten sick during the pandemic, or at least “tested positive,” but the vast majority
have not because we are part of the 80% of the population that was never at
risk to begin with.
Then
there are all the people like my friend, an emergency room doctor at Frankford
Hospital in Philly. Through the
pandemic, he has continued to deal with everything that walks through his door---gunshot
wounds, overdoses, strokes, suicide attempts, heart attacks, diabetic comas,
and yes, COVID patients. Though he wears
a mask and gloves and follows all the protocols, there is simply no way he was
not exposed to the virus, yet he remains healthy and uninfected.
It
almost seems that the Executive Orders and Edicts and Pronunciamentos become more intrusive and restrictive as the
virus itself fades into the past. The
need for universal mask-wearing (if there ever was one), is certainly lower now
than it has been since the beginning of the pandemic, but the politicians and
bureaucrats show no sign of slowing down in their efforts to regulate us.
But
why? What is the purpose of this endless
tinkering with our lives and our freedom?
We have all learned something about what each of us is facing and we
have become more knowledgeable about our individual needs and what we are
comfortable with. Want to wear a
mask? I would never tell you not
to. But each of us is in a unique
position to decide for ourselves what level of concern or precaution is reasonable.
We are
not children, and we do not need the Governor of this state or any other to
tell us what is best for us. We are all
capable of making those decisions for ourselves, as responsible citizens have
always done. Faith in individual
responsibility and freedom, in fact, is the foundation of our society. My
position is a simple one: if there is no reason for me to wear a mask, and
there is not, I should not be ordered to wear one, and there can be no
legitimate legal authority for such an order.
Copyright2020MichaelKubacki
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