NFL PLAYOFFS---2019

          As we all know, magical elf Nick Foles (“BDN! BDN! BDN!”), has emerged from his sylvan lair and will lead the Eagles through four road victories to yet another Superbowl championship and MVP trophy.  There’s really not much point in playing the games.

          However, for those of you who tune in here once a year for a dose of football science, I will proceed as if Nick did not exist and as if the winner of the NFL tournament will be, as it normally is, the team best able to make a big pass play when it needs to.

          These predictions will be based, in other words, on yards/pass numbers (adjusted for interceptions), for the regular season.  I also calculate defensive yards/pass, just because it is easy to do.  Also, one cannot help but notice that New Orleans and KC each outscored their opponents by an average of over nine points per game, while the Cowgirls and the Eagles topped their foes by an average of only one point.

Pretenders

          Every year, there are three or four playoff teams that appear to have no realistic chance of winning the Superbowl.  This year, those teams are Indianapolis, Dallas, Philadelphia and Seattle.  It is possible for these guys to win a game, and this year at least one of them will, since Seattle is playing Dallas in the first round.  It is rare for any of them to go much further.

Could Get Lucky

          There are four of these as well, and they are inferior to the real Contenders in yards/pass, but they have something going for them.  These are Chicago, Baltimore, Houston and New England.

          Chicago and Baltimore have the lowest figures of any team in the tournament, at 5.6 yards/pass, and this would normally relegate them to the Pretender class, but they have the two best defensive yards/pass metrics.  Chicago’s is a mere 3.9 yards/pass, and Baltimore’s is 4.8.  In addition, both teams appear to be peaking at the right time.  In particular, Mr. Harbaugh was supposedly going to be fired as the Ravens’ coach, but then he found his own magic elf quarterback, a guy named Jackson, and now the Baltimores have apparently transitioned from the Flacco era on a high note.

          I dunno.  I don’t really believe in either one of them, and a great defensive team only wins the Superbowl every ten years or so, but Chicago and Baltimore are both better than Dallas.

          As for the other two, well, one of them is New England WITH a first-round bye, so that’s that.  The other is Houston, with a respectable yds/pass number of 6.6.  In addition, they lost their first three games and then won eleven out of the last thirteen.  Their pass defense is not as good as you think it is but their offense is better.  Houston is allowed to get lucky.

Contenders

          This leaves New Orleans, the Rams, KC and the Chargers.  Pop quiz: what do these teams have that the Washington Redskins do not?  That is correct!  A great quarterback.

          In order, their yds/pass numbers are KC (7.5), New Orleans (7.1), Rams (6.8), and Chargers (6.8).  The New Orleans defensive numbers are slightly worse than the others, but the Saints also have the highest points differential (9.4 points/game), of the four.  The Chargers are the only one that have to play a wild-card game, so that puts them at the bottom of the pile, but not by much.

          Take your pick.

Wild Card Games

Indy at Houston -1.    I’m not sure why this line has been dropping.  Maybe there are Andrew Luck fans who have suddenly decided THIS is the year.  At last!  In fact, Houston is a better team on both sides of the ball, and they are at home.  Take the Texans.

Seattle at Dallas -2.5.  Seattle has the better QB and the better pass defense.  Also, while Dallas outscored its opponents by one point per game, Seattle outscored theirs by five.  Seattle will win this game outright.

Chargers at Baltimore -3.  The Chargers beat the Ravens in yard/pass 6.8 to 5.6.  This is a significant difference.  Baltimore has been hot since installing Jackson as QB, and their pass defense is probably better than the Chargers’, but if the ability to throw the ball down the field means anything in the playoffs, the Chargers will win this game.

Eagles at Chicago -6.5.  The Bears have certainly been a better team than the Eagles for most of the season, and their pass defense is the best in the tournament.  However, Philly’s yards/pass is 6.2 to Chicago’s 5.6, so I’m taking the dog again.

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki