NFL PLAYOFFS---2019 Conference Championships

Rams @ New Orleans -3.5

          Looking at the yard/pass numbers, these are clearly the two best teams in the NFC.  The Saints have a small edge in offensive yards/pass and the Rams have a small edge in defensive yards/pass.  The Saints outscored their opponents by 9.4 points per game, while the Rams outscored their opponents by 8.9.  Based simply on these metrics, New Orleans deserves a small edge and that’s exactly what the line says: 3 ½ points.  Based on the season-long numbers, I would pass.

          However, the defenses of these two teams are going in opposite directions.  For the first 8 games of the season, the Saints gave up 27 points per game; for the last 8, that number is 17ppg.  The comparable numbers for the Rams are 23 ppg in the first 8, and 29 ½ ppg in the final 8.  The Saints, in other words, have gotten quite a bit better as the season progressed and the Rams have gotten quite a bit worse.

          For me, that’s enough to tip the scale.  I’m taking the Saints and laying the points.

Pats @ KC -3

          In the AFC game, KC has the largest adjusted yards/pass number in the tournament at 7.5, while NE is a full yard behind.  KC is second only to New Orleans in outscoring opponents---9 points per game versus New England’s 7 points per game.  In addition, KC has never been “blown out” (beaten by at least nine points), this season, while the Patriots have been blown out three times.  New England’s defense has been better than the Chiefs’ most of the year, but KC completely shut down an Indianapolis offense that many analysts thought would put some serious points on the board.

          In short, my metrics suggest that KC should cover this three-point spread.

          On the other hand….

          Since the 1970 merger of the NFL and the AFL, the Patriots have played in 14 AFC Championship games and have won ten of them.  This will be the eighth year in a row they are playing in this game.  By contrast, in those fifty years, KC has made it to ONE AFC Championship game, which it lost.  I know the players were different, I know the coaches were different, I know everything was different, but still….

          And then there’s Tom Brady, of course, who is still pissed off about losing last year.  And then there’s Andy Reid, the Jacques Who of football coaches, who always wins ten or twelve games a season but can never win the big one.  How many times have we seen that goofy, befuddled, fourth-quarter look on his puss as the clock ticks down in yet another game he should have won but is losing by 14?

          I refuse to bet Kansas City in this game, though my numbers tell me the Chiefs are the best team this year and will win not only this game but the Superbowl as well.  Sorry.  I pass.

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki

NFL Playoffs 2019---Division Week

I went 2-1 last weekend, with a miracle push in the Dallas-Seattle game.  I got Indianapolis completely wrong.

Indy @ KC -5

At 7.5 adjusted yards/pass, the Chiefs boast the best number in the field, and Indy’s 5.8 is among the worst.  This kind of difference would normally suggest a romp for KC and I would lay the points.

I have reservations, however.  First off, Indianapolis came into the tournament on a roll and basically CRUSHED a decent Houston squad.  I was impressed.  Since Andrew Luck was drafted (in 1968), everyone in football land has been certain that he would someday 1) grow up, 2) get healthy, 3) finally find himself surrounded by a team that could perform football-related tasks in a competent manner, and 4) win seven or eight Superbowls.  Has it actually happened, now that we all finally gave up on him?

Second, while the defensive yards/pass figures for KC and Indy are the same, the Colts defense has gotten a LOT better as the season progressed.  KC has been outscoring everybody while giving up about 26 points per game. Indianapolis was also allowing opponents 26 points/game for the first half of the season, but then tuned up the D and permitted only 16 ½ points over the last eight games.  This is the best scoring defense number over the second half for any team in the tourney.

And then there’s Andy, of course.  Despite all his disciples in the NFL coaching fraternity (who are rather tediously listed during every national broadcast of a KC game), the tale of Andy Reid has one recurring theme---losing the big one.  And while his QB, Mahomes, is the most entertaining player in the league, and while the Kansas City Chiefs have the best yards/pass numbers this year and should be the favorite to win it all, I just don’t believe it. Andy always finds a way to lose a critical game he should win by two touchdowns, and I fear this matchup might be the one.

Even beyond Andy himself, the franchise is cursed.  The last time the Chiefs won a home playoff game was a wee bit over twenty-five years ago, on January 8, 1994, when they squeaked by the Steelers 27-24 in OT.  Since then, KC has gone 1-10, its only triumph a wildcard victory in Houston on January 9, 2016.  Four of the ten losses have come in this exact situation, with the Chiefs earning a bye and then losing their first home game in Division Week.

Can’t bet this game.   KC is the best team out there, and Mahomes, if he stays healthy, will break records as a QB.  But I pass.

Dallas @ Rams -7

This one is quite a bit easier.  The Rams dominate the Cowgirls in yards/pass and defensive yards/pass.  They have outscored opponents by nine points per game, compared to Dallas’s one point per game.  Like KC, the Rams outscore everybody, and they will do so here.  Lay the points.

Chargers @ New England -4

I make this game a pick ‘em, so I’m taking the Chargers with the points.  I know the Patriots don’t lose much in January in Foxborough, and I know Brady is probably pissed off about last year, and I know the Pats had the bye week leading into this home game.

Still, the Chargers are half a yard better in adjusted yards/pass, and the teams are comparable in defensive yards/pass.  It was hard to like the Chargers’s win over Baltimore, a game they totally dominated and should have won by 30, but actually won by 6.  I don’t know much about Chargers coach Anthony Lynn, but I have to think his strangely passive strategy against the Ravens will not be repeated in Massachusetts this week.  Assuming he has learned his lesson, I’m taking the Bolts (and the points), in what I expect will be a close game.

Philly @ New Orleans -8

Yards/pass numbers here are comparable to those in the Rams-Dallas matchup, though you only get a TD with the Girls and you get a bit more with the Iggles.  For those of you hung up on reason and logic and Western Civilization, I suggest you pass this game because it will probably be won by the Saints, but it will be a lot closer than the 48-7 pasting delivered by the Saints to the Eagles on November 18.  The Saints, by any measure, are better.  Are they 6 points better?  Ten points better?  I dunno.

For those of you who now believe in magic elf Nick Foles, however, please join me in betting the Eagles to win outright in some outlandish fashion that none of us dare imagine.

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki

NFL PLAYOFFS---2019

          As we all know, magical elf Nick Foles (“BDN! BDN! BDN!”), has emerged from his sylvan lair and will lead the Eagles through four road victories to yet another Superbowl championship and MVP trophy.  There’s really not much point in playing the games.

          However, for those of you who tune in here once a year for a dose of football science, I will proceed as if Nick did not exist and as if the winner of the NFL tournament will be, as it normally is, the team best able to make a big pass play when it needs to.

          These predictions will be based, in other words, on yards/pass numbers (adjusted for interceptions), for the regular season.  I also calculate defensive yards/pass, just because it is easy to do.  Also, one cannot help but notice that New Orleans and KC each outscored their opponents by an average of over nine points per game, while the Cowgirls and the Eagles topped their foes by an average of only one point.

Pretenders

          Every year, there are three or four playoff teams that appear to have no realistic chance of winning the Superbowl.  This year, those teams are Indianapolis, Dallas, Philadelphia and Seattle.  It is possible for these guys to win a game, and this year at least one of them will, since Seattle is playing Dallas in the first round.  It is rare for any of them to go much further.

Could Get Lucky

          There are four of these as well, and they are inferior to the real Contenders in yards/pass, but they have something going for them.  These are Chicago, Baltimore, Houston and New England.

          Chicago and Baltimore have the lowest figures of any team in the tournament, at 5.6 yards/pass, and this would normally relegate them to the Pretender class, but they have the two best defensive yards/pass metrics.  Chicago’s is a mere 3.9 yards/pass, and Baltimore’s is 4.8.  In addition, both teams appear to be peaking at the right time.  In particular, Mr. Harbaugh was supposedly going to be fired as the Ravens’ coach, but then he found his own magic elf quarterback, a guy named Jackson, and now the Baltimores have apparently transitioned from the Flacco era on a high note.

          I dunno.  I don’t really believe in either one of them, and a great defensive team only wins the Superbowl every ten years or so, but Chicago and Baltimore are both better than Dallas.

          As for the other two, well, one of them is New England WITH a first-round bye, so that’s that.  The other is Houston, with a respectable yds/pass number of 6.6.  In addition, they lost their first three games and then won eleven out of the last thirteen.  Their pass defense is not as good as you think it is but their offense is better.  Houston is allowed to get lucky.

Contenders

          This leaves New Orleans, the Rams, KC and the Chargers.  Pop quiz: what do these teams have that the Washington Redskins do not?  That is correct!  A great quarterback.

          In order, their yds/pass numbers are KC (7.5), New Orleans (7.1), Rams (6.8), and Chargers (6.8).  The New Orleans defensive numbers are slightly worse than the others, but the Saints also have the highest points differential (9.4 points/game), of the four.  The Chargers are the only one that have to play a wild-card game, so that puts them at the bottom of the pile, but not by much.

          Take your pick.

Wild Card Games

Indy at Houston -1.    I’m not sure why this line has been dropping.  Maybe there are Andrew Luck fans who have suddenly decided THIS is the year.  At last!  In fact, Houston is a better team on both sides of the ball, and they are at home.  Take the Texans.

Seattle at Dallas -2.5.  Seattle has the better QB and the better pass defense.  Also, while Dallas outscored its opponents by one point per game, Seattle outscored theirs by five.  Seattle will win this game outright.

Chargers at Baltimore -3.  The Chargers beat the Ravens in yard/pass 6.8 to 5.6.  This is a significant difference.  Baltimore has been hot since installing Jackson as QB, and their pass defense is probably better than the Chargers’, but if the ability to throw the ball down the field means anything in the playoffs, the Chargers will win this game.

Eagles at Chicago -6.5.  The Bears have certainly been a better team than the Eagles for most of the season, and their pass defense is the best in the tournament.  However, Philly’s yards/pass is 6.2 to Chicago’s 5.6, so I’m taking the dog again.

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki