New England (-3) vs. Atlanta
This (let’s hope), is a classic. The 2017 Superbowl pits the best
Adjusted-Yards-Per-Pass team in the NFC against the best AYP team in the AFC.
Atlanta, with Matt Ryan and friends, notched an 8.1 AYP for
the regular season. (Second best in the
NFC was Dallas, with 6.9.) The Patriots
dominated the AFC with a 7.7 AYP, with Oakland in second place at 6.2. If nothing else, this Superbowl validates the
theory that what is needed to get to the championship game is an ability to
make big plays.
Other statistical measures suggest the teams are evenly
matched. New England has an edge in
point differential---they are +12 while the Falcons are +8.5. Over the last ten games, however (eight
regular season and two playoff), both NE and Atlanta are +14.3 points. The Falcons have also played a slightly
tougher schedule (48% opponent win percentage) than the Patriots (43% opponent
win percentage).
On the defensive side, there can be little doubt New England
has an edge, having given up the fewest points of any NFL team. Throughout the season, Atlanta has been near
the bottom of that (scoring defense) list. However, the gap has been closing rapidly,
largely because the Falcons’ defense has gotten steadily better. Throughout the first half of the season, New
England gave up 16 points/game; over the second half, it was basically unchanged
at 15.1. Atlanta, however, allowed its
opponents 29 points/game over the first eight games, but over the last ten
games cut that number by more than a touchdown to 21.6 points/game.
People who know about such things attribute Atlanta’s
improvement on defense to its secondary, which had to reinvent itself after
Week 9 when all-Pro shutdown corner Desmond Trufant went down for the
season. Atlanta’s cover-3 zone is still the
foundation of its pass defense, but the use of man-to-man coverage has increased
every week, with noticeable results. It
is a very young group (two rookie LBs, a rookie safety and a rookie corner),
but it is extremely fast and athletic, which is a prerequisite for successful man-to-man
coverage.
Those same people (the ones who know about such things),
point out that the only way to beat the Patriot offense (not that it’s easy),
is with man-to-man coverage. Patriot
receivers are not necessarily the fastest in the league or the most superior athletes,
but they are extremely skilled in the New England system of exploiting zone
vulnerabilities and finding empty places in the coverage scheme. Brady is viewed as the best in the league at
picking zones apart. Only a defense that
can play man-to-man (and not every
defense has the speed to do it), can potentially give Brady problems.
I’m taking Atlanta in this Superbowl, largely because there
is little to choose from between these teams and with the Falcons, I get three
points. An additional rationale is that
Atlanta still seems to be improving week-to-week. I expect a close game, and a last-minute
field goal could well be the difference.
What I don’t expect
is a shootout. The average score of the
last eight New England games was 28 – 15, for a total of 43 points. The average of Atlanta games was 35 – 22
(total=57). So how do we get an
over/under of 59 points? The defense for
both of these teams has been improving as the season and the playoffs have
unfolded, so why, suddenly, are we to expect an Arena Football game? In addition, many coaches become a bit timid
and conservative when thrust into the Superbowl spotlight, and that tends to hold
down scoring. In the L Superbowls played
so far, only VIII have seen total points of 60 or more.
I take Atlanta (-3), but I do so somewhat reluctantly,
understanding that betting against the Patriots has not traditionally been a
path to riches. I eagerly take the under
59, however. I will be genuinely surprised
if these teams score 60 or more.
Copyright2017MichaelKubacki
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