It’s that time again---time to analyze the NFL playoffs in
terms of, primarily, yards-per-pass, our measure of a team’s ability to make
big plays. The basic number for each
team is derived from its passing yards, with a penalty deduction of 50 yards
for each interception. This adjusted
passing yards number is then divided by the number of pass attempts. (The stat, and the method, is not one I
invented.)
The Washington Ethnic Slurs, for example, had 4095 passing
yards, and we subtract 550 yards from this total to account for the 11
interceptions thrown. This leaves 3545,
which we divide by 555 pass attempts. Our adjusted yards/pass (let’s call it
AYP), for the Slurs is thus 6.4. Over the
years, a team’s AYP is highly correlated with its performance in the playoffs. Other statistical measures (e.g., rushing
yards per game, scoring defense, takeaways, etc.), are of no value at all in
predicting who will win the championship.
Since it’s easy to do, I also calculate defensive AYP for each of the playoff teams, though I suspect it has
no particular meaning independent of the number of interceptions a defense
achieves during the season. I also
notice point differential, regular season match-ups of teams that will meet in
the playoffs, and important injuries.
Finally, for the past eight years, players on all the teams have
graciously provided me with stool samples that I examine under a microscope in
my garage before incorporating them into the soil in our front garden where
they fertilize our Spring tulips.
If you have ever questioned whether the NFL belongs to
quarterbacks, a look at this year’s quarterback ratings should straighten you
out. (The quarterback rating is the mix
of completion percentage, TD passes, interceptions and passing yards that has
been used by the NFL since 1973 to determine its passing leader.)
This year, there are six QBs in the NFL who had ten or more
starts and ratings over 100. The only
one not in the playoffs is Drew Brees.
The others are Russell Wilson (110.1), Andy Dalton (106.3), Carson
Palmer (104.6), Tom Brady (102.2) and Kirk Cousins (101.6).
The other playoff QBs mostly have decent numbers as well:
Cam Newton 99.4
A.J. McCarron (Cincy) 97.1
Alex Smith (KC) 95.4
Roethlisberger 94.5
Aaron Rodgers 92.7
Brian Hoyer (Hou) 91.4
Teddy Bridgewater (Minn) 88.7
Osweller (Den) 86.4
And then there’s:
Peyton Manning 67.9
NFC
Contenders: Arizona (AYP=7.5), Seattle (7.0), Carolina (6.0)
Pretenders: Washington (6.2), Green Bay (5.4), Minnesota
(5.6)
For the past few years, a lot of fans have watched Arizona
and Carolina and wondered: what would happen if they got about 5% better and
stayed mostly healthy throughout a season?
Well, here it is. They are both
extremely good. AYP for Arizona, at 7.5,
is the best in the league. Carolina,
under Cam Newton, has an AYP of “only” 6.0, but their pass defense is stifling
and they had the largest point differential (500-308) in the NFL.
Seattle, with an AYP of 7.0, is clearly alive in the hunt,
and not only because of Russell Wilson.
The team gave up the fewest points (277) of anyone, and after starting
the season 4-4, went 6-2 the rest of the way.
In addition, now that we are in the playoffs, the Seahawks secondary will
again be permitted, without penalty, to tackle any opposing receiver as he
comes off the line of scrimmage. (There
was some indication that the no-flags-for-Seahawks rule was already in effect
for the final regular-season game.)
In the regular season, Seattle’s pass defense was inferior
to both Arizona’s and Carolina’s. In
addition, Seattle is a # 6 seed in the NFC so they will not get a home
game. It’s a rough path to the Superbowl
for the Seahawks and they will probably have to beat both Arizona and Carolina on the road to get there. They’re dangerous, they’re on the rise, but I
still don’t like their chances.
AFC
Contenders:
Cincinnati (AYP=7.0), New England (6.8), KC (6.4)
Pretenders: Pittsburgh (6.0), Denver (4.6), Houston (5.3)
Denver is the #1 seed.
They get a bye week, and they will get two home games in a stadium with
an atmospheric home field advantage that other teams can only dream of. It’s extremely tempting, for those reasons
alone, to list them as a contender. In
fact, if I knew Osweller would be starting for the Broncos, I probably would
have. Peyton Manning, however, will be
healthy enough to play, and he almost certainly will. I mean, he’s Peyton Freakin’ Manning! How can you not start the guy if he can walk?
His numbers are terrible.
In ten starts, he had 17 passes intercepted and an AYP of 4.2. His QB rating of 67.9 is twenty points below
that of the mediocre QB’s who got lucky this year and get to start a playoff
game (Teddy Bridgewater of Minnesota has a QB rating of 88.7; Brian Hoyer of
Houston is 91.4). I am a Peyton Manning
fan and I will be rooting for him to find the magic once again, but the Denver
story this year is just a fairy tale. They
scored 355 points and gave up 296 for a point differential of less than 4
points per game---with those numbers, a record of 12-4 is almost impossible. Normally, a differential like this gets you a
9-7 record, or perhaps 10-6. They were
extremely lucky to make the playoffs, and yet they somehow find themselves a #1
seed.
After a 10-0 start, the injuries finally caught up with New
England, which lost four of its final six games. The only thing holding this team together was
Brady, along with a competent defense.
Now Brady has a high-ankle sprain sustained in the loss to Miami
(thanks, Mr. Suh!), and while he will almost certainly play on the weekend of
1-16 and 1-17, we cannot know how effective he will be. Edelman is also expected to return
(finally). New England cannot be counted
out, but unlike the NFC where the top seeds appear to be two teams awakening
into greatness, the AFC’s #1 and #2, Denver and New England, are struggling to
hang on to their past glories.
Cincinnati seems a more realistic choice, though their path
to the Superbowl must go through New England and possibly Denver too. But they can win, largely because A.J.
McCarron has been close to brilliant in filling in for Andy Dalton (who seems very unlikely to play in the
playoffs). In seven games, McCarron has
completed 79 of 119 passes for 854 yards, with only two interceptions. This translates to a 97.1 QB rating and a 6.3
AYP. He is not Dalton, but he may be
good enough in a damaged AFC field.
Then there is KC, which is third in the NFL in scoring
defense and has a good (but not scary) offense led by Alex Smith. As a #5 seed, KC will have to win three games
on the road to get to Superbowl (don’t call me “L”) 50, and while they should
not be huge underdogs in any of those games, it’s still a lot to ask.
WILD CARD GAMES
I don’t think we’ve ever seen four home dogs on Wild Card
Weekend.
KC (-3) @ Houston. KC has
a better offense, a better defense, a better record, a better QB, a much better
point differential. KC has a (small)
chance to win it all; Houston has none.
I lay the points with no regrets.
Pitt (-3) @ Cincinnati. Hard to understand this line. Maybe it’s the mystique of the Steelers or
the legend of Roethlisberger, but I see no area of the game where Pittsburgh is
superior to the Bengals. “Experience”
maybe---playoff experience. I suppose I’m
not looking for Cincinnati to romp in this spot, but they are better than the
Steelers both offensively and defensively and the game is in Cincinnati. The wrong team is favored. Take the Bengals.
Seattle (-5) @ Minnesota. On December 6, Seattle went to Minnesota and
beat the Vikings 38-7. The Vikings then
lost a close game to Arizona and finished with three strong performances over
Chicago, NY and Green Bay (in Green
Bay), so arguably Minnesota is a better team now. But so is Seattle, which is superior on both
sides of the ball. Also, Russell Wilson
is a superstar and Teddy Bridgewater is a mutt.
A nice mutt, but a mutt nonetheless.
This is not my favorite game of the weekend, and I don’t like laying
five points. But I will lay them.
Green Bay (-1) @ Washington. Neither of these teams will survive the next
round of the tournament but one of them will win this game. I don’t know which one. Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers, of course,
but he has had a bad year and Kirk Cousins has had a great one. The Packer defense is superior to Washington’s,
but the Ethnic Slurs have steadily improved this season while Green Bay has
clearly gone backward. If I had to choose,
I suppose I would take Green Bay but with no enthusiasm. I pass.
Copyright2016MichaelKubacki
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