THE TROUBLE WITH DONALD

Donald Trump has gotten a lot of attention in the Republican presidential race with his recent comments about America’s broken immigration system, the quality of the individuals streaming across our southern border, criminal behavior of illegals, the need for a fence, and so on.  Republican voters like to hear this sort of thing because it’s the truth, because the situation threatens our security, because it costs a lot of money, and for a dozen other reasons.  It helps Trump immeasurably that other big-name Republican candidates (e.g., Walker, Rubio, Christie, Bush, Graham) denounce him and remain focused on a “path to citizenship” for those “living in the shadows.”  Many of us are familiar with those living in the shadows, and we can’t understand why these people, who mostly scramble to make a living and get their kids educated, are viewed as a “problem.”  It seems to us that the ones who emerge from the shadows to deal drugs, shoot people, commit drunken vehicular homicide, rape young women, and abuse our welfare system are the actual problem.

As I have noted before in these pages, there are ten or twenty other immigration issues more pressing than the creation of a path to citizenship for those living in the shadows.  Why should we worry about them?  First of all, many of them are not seeking anything other than money to send back to relatives in Mexico; they don’t want to live here or become citizens or legal residents.  The others, those who would like to stay, have chosen to come here knowing they may never get legal status, and as long as they are not killing people or committing crimes or doing other dreadful things, why are they worth our time?  Some manage to make a living and some will even succeed economically.  Some will learn English and become integrated into American life.  Most will root for the Dodgers.  They will grow old and eventually go the way of all flesh.  Their kids, the ones they bring here or create here, will be real Americans.  They will be just fine.

It’s not an ideal picture, having millions of illegals here, and it’s worth securing the border so there aren’t millions more of them tomorrow, but what else are we to do?  The Christies and Bushes and Rubios and Obamas scream that WE CAN’T ROUND THEM UP AND DEPORT THEM as if the only alternatives are 1) to round them up or 2) make them citizens.  But neither one of those options makes much sense, does it?  Why can’t we ignore them?  The ones who do crimes should get sent home.  The ones who can’t support themselves will go home voluntarily.  We can live with the rest.

Most Americans know this.  They know that the incessant cry for a “path to citizenship” from both Republicans and Democrats is just pandering by politicians who see that illegals already have significant political power, and will probably have even more, and soon.  Many illegals already vote, and at the level of local politics, their views must be taken into account on issues like policing, education and welfare policies.  So when Obama or Rubio or Pelosi or Bush tell us how noble these illegals are, they’re not really talking to us, they’re talking to the illegals or to their supporters at La Raza or Univision or any of the (growing) Latino political groups.

Trump, however, is talking to us.  Immigrant crime and the refusal to enforce our laws is a real issue, it concerns the continued existence of the republic, and none of the other candidates have been addressing it at all.  That’s why he’s broken through.  It’s why everyone is talking about him.  The lefties at CNN and NBC and the NYT and all the other media sinkholes think it’s just terrible, so they won’t shut up about him.  And though most of the Republicans don’t like what is happening, they are being forced to talk about the issue too.  On balance, this is a positive development for the Republican candidates.  Before, all they were was a bunch of guys wandering around Iowa and New Hampshire like the zombies on the Walking Dead, waiting for Rick or Daryl or Glenn to show up and lop off their coconut with a meat cleaver.  Now there is something to talk about, something that matters to people, and they actually have to talk about it.

One would like to think that, in our political process, Republican candidates would eventually be forced to discuss the assault on America from the radical Left (of which the trashing of our immigration law is only one aspect), but there is no obvious mechanism by which this is destined to occur.  The leftwing media won’t do it, the candidates themselves won’t do it, and the TV “debates” hosted by people like Candy Crowley wouldn’t normally touch an issue like this with a ten-foot hot poker.  (“Show of hands---who believes the Earth was created six thousand years ago?”)  Reince Priebus, the anointed commissar of mainstream Republicanism, yesterday begged Trump to put a sock in it.  The only market for this kind of serious talk is the American people; the political class and the media hate it.

There is simply no stomach for these kind of hard truths among those who hold the keys to the media or among most Republican candidates.  Keep in mind that the last two Republican candidates for President, McCain and Romney, managed to run 18-month campaigns costing hundreds of millions of dollars without ever engaging Obama on his plans to “fundamentally transform” (translation---“destroy”) the American republic.  Mainstream Republicans consider the discussion of these issues to be distasteful, impolite and, because Obama is black, racist.

So Trump, in that sense, is doing a good thing.  The problem with him, however---well, there are actually a lot of problems ranging from his many contributions to Democratic politicians (including his good friend Hillary), to his admiration for a single-payer health-care system, to his warm embrace of post-Kelo eminent domain law to force people out of real estate he personally covets.  Even if you admire Donald Trump personally (and I confess I can’t understand why you would), you cannot regard him as a political conservative or as someone to be trusted.

But the real problem is that he is pandering as well, and he won’t get away with it.  For one thing, sooner or later, someone will remember that Trump lambasted Romney for his “self-deportation” remark, and expressed his opinion that there has to be a---drumroll---“path to citizenship” for the 20 or 30 million illegals.  Donald doesn’t talk about his 2012 run for President very much, and he certainly doesn’t mention that.

Worse, however, is the other prong of his new-found policy prescription for those danged furriners.  Protectionism.  Mercantilism.  Tariffs.  Whatever you wish to call it, Trump is every bit as dedicated to this bit of demagoguery as Lou Dobbs, Nancy Pelosi, Pat Buchanan or Elizabeth Warren.  He recently proposed a 25% tax on all Chinese imports.  He has described NAFTA as a disaster.  He wants a 35% tariff on Ford vehicles manufactured in Mexico and shipped to the US.

There is one reason, and only one reason, to advocate such a policy, and that is to attract support from that small slice of the electorate who 1) are truly xenophobes, 2) are unaware that this particular school of economic thinking was thoroughly discredited by Adam Smith, David Ricardo and many others (as well as the common experience of Western European countries) about two hundred years ago, and 3) are easily manipulated.  The theory that one can detect criminal tendencies in an individual by studying the bumps on a person’s head remained intellectually respectable almost a hundred years after mercantilist theories became something that no serious economist would entertain.

That’s the reason why you never see a real economist from a university arguing against protectionism on CNN.  It would be like someone with a Ph.D. in astronomy agreeing to debate the shape of the planet with Rufus Moonbeam, First Exalted Potentate of the Flat Earth Society of East Rutherford, NJ.  Actual scientists don’t bother with flat-earthers, and professors of economics don’t bother with trade protectionists.

Donald Trump may be a boor, but he’s not a moron.  He (and everyone else who claims they want to “protect American jobs”) knows there is no fixed number of jobs. They know that a voluntary transaction between a businessman in Iowa and one in Shanghai must benefit both of them or it would not happen.  They know free trade benefits everyone.  They (and all of us) have known this for 200 years.  And when Trump or Warren or Lou Dobbs or Obama says otherwise, they are not misinformed, they are lying.

Protectionism is a tempting ploy for a politician because there’s always an audience for it.  In addition to the voters who don’t like the danged furriners and never will, there are always people whose lives have been recently disrupted by economic change.  When the only manufacturing plant in your town closes and your personal situation gets ugly, it’s not easy to see the larger picture.  That’s when you become fodder for those who think you’re an idiot but want your vote.

The problem with this strategy is that there are only so many people in this angry demographic at any one time.  Trump is now pulling what percentage of the Republican vote?  14%?  16%?  That’s a lot in a field of fourteen announced candidates with several more yet to jump in, but the 14% or 16% is his limit.  When Walker or Bush or Cruz starts climbing and the weaker candidates start dropping out, Trump will still be sitting where he is.  Then even his most fanatical supporters will start deserting him because they will come to understand he cannot win.

Enjoy Donald while you can.  Also, we can thank him for kick-starting discussion of a meaningful political issue in America.  Just don’t expect him to be around when the leaves start falling.

Copyright2015MichaelKubacki