2014 NFL PLAYOFFS---Round 2

New Orleans @ Seattle (-8)

Of course, it's hard to picture a Saints victory here. How would it happen? Does the entire Seattle starting secondary run into each other during warm-ups and suffer concussions before the game even starts? There is not much difference in the quality of these two offenses, but the Seahawks' defense gave up 14.5 points per game, lowest in the league. The Saints' defense was very good as well, but of the four NFC teams left, well, they're fourth.

This is the end for New Orleans. Their victory in Philly (by a hair) exposed some Eagle weaknesses but did not really make the case that the Saints are capable of going on the road and beating a genuine Superbowl contender like the Seahawks.

The Saints' worst loss of the year, 34 – 7, came in Seattle on December 2, and I don't think much has changed in either team since then. Drew Brees remains a superstar and he will score more than 7 points, but he won't score enough to win.

You have to like Seattle here, but do they cover? I offer no opinion.

San Francisco (-1) @ Carolina

This is the easiest pick of the week. Carolina's adjusted yards/pass is a full yard higher than San Fran's (7.2 vs. 6.2), and the Panther defense is also stronger. Carolina should be favored by a touchdown. Carolina should be favored even if the game were in San Francisco. Carolina beat San Francisco in San Francisco in Week 10, and though the final was 10 – 9, the Panthers dominated the game. Carolina has another advantage as well---they are not coached by Jim “I'm the dopey” Harbaugh, the guy who is largely responsible for San Francisco's loss in last year's Superbowl.

There are two reasons San Fran is favored.

The first is that Carolina has not been nearly as dominant in the second half of the season as they were in the first half. Though they went 7 – 1, and beat San Francisco, New England and New Orleans, most of the scores were close. They only outscored their opponents by 27 points in the last eight games, so that makes them suspect.

The second reason is that San Francisco has cable cars and sushi and Allen Ginsberg and Lawrence Ferlinghetti and a quarterback with tattoos all over him. They're cool and they have lots of gay friends and multiple piercings. Carolina, on the other hand, well, where is it anyway? Is Carolina a city or is it one or those generalized geographical NFL team areas like “New England” or “Arizona” or “The Middle East”? And if this so-called “Carolina” is not actually a city, what city do they play in, exactly? Memphis? Tuscaloosa? Hong Kong?

Cam Newton is now a real quarterback. Carolina wins outright.

Indianapolis @ New England (-7)

Is a retractable roof a dome? Is Indy a “dome team?” I ask because I was wondering about the last time a dome team came to New England in December or January and beat the Patriots. I'm still wondering. I looked back through the year 2000 and I couldn't find a loss like that. Maybe it never happened. Maybe it happened in 1987. In any event, I'm predicting it won't happen this year either.

New England's 12 – 4 record this year may represent one of the best coaching jobs Belichick has ever done. At times, it seemed that all his receivers were in prison or in the hospital or catching passes thrown by Peyton Manning, and yet he somehow managed to find guys Brady could throw the ball to. Even with a great record and a first-round bye in the playoffs, you would still have to describe this as a rough year for the Patriots.

But they're better than Indianapolis and Brady is better than Luck, especially in New England. The yds/pass numbers are about the same, New England's defense is a bit better, and then there's the home field. This doesn't look like a championship season for the Patriots but they will beat the Colts.

As for laying 7 points, I decline. The line is about right.

San Diego @ Denver (-9)

Denver is the best team in the tournament by far, but this is a tough match-up for them. Though the Broncos have ten blow-out wins (by 10 or more points) this season, they have appeared mortal against teams with star quarterbacks and good passing attacks. Brady beat them in New England, Andrew Luck beat them in Indiana, and Romo put up 48 against them (though Dallas lost). San Diego, with Phillip Rivers, beat them as well. In Week 15, the Chargers went to Denver and handed them their only home loss of the year by a score of 27 – 20. (Earlier, in Week 10, the Broncos had beaten the Chargers 28 – 20.) In terms of passing yards given up, Denver has the 29^th best pass defense in the league. It is their one area of vulnerability.

The line here is nine points, the biggest spread of the weekend, and it should be. Denver leads SD in yds/pass by 7.3 to 6.9; the Broncos lead in defensive yds/pass as well (5.3 to 6.6). These represent the largest spread in any of the games this weekend. Manning can outscore anyone, and he will outscore Rivers. Denver remains the favorite to win the Superbowl.

But Rivers will score. The Chargers seem to get more dangerous each week, and their somewhat supernatural win over Cincinnati last Sunday must give one pause.

I'm taking these points.

BONUS---Blowout Wins

In any sport, a team's record in blowout victories is a good indicator of just who is good and who is not. While sports commentators seem obsessed with one-run baseball games or buzzer-beaters in basketball, these records have very little predictive value. Winning a baseball game by one run probably means you were lucky that day. A 12-3 victory, on the other hand (or lots of them), probably means you are better.

I refer to blowout wins a couple of times above, and I used a definition of 10 or more points. In the following table, I use 8 or more points simply because it yields more results.

2013 Regular Season Record in Blowout Wins (8 or more points)

Denver 11 – 0

New England 5 – 0

San Diego 5 – 2

Indianapolis 6 – 4

Seattle 8 – 0

San Francisco 9 – 2

Carolina 7 – 2

New Orleans 7 – 2

Copyright2014MichaelKubacki