The analytic process here remains the same. I calculate a number we call Adjusted Yards
per Pass (“AYP”) for each of the playoff teams.
Total yards gained through the air is first reduced by fifty yards for
each interception, and then divided by the number of pass attempts. This year, for example, Atlanta gained 4725
passing yards with 7 interceptions. I
subtract 350 (which is 7 x 50), from the 4725.
This yields 4375, which I then divide by Atlanta’s 537 attempts. This yields an AYP of 8.1.
AYP is a measure of a team’s ability to throw the ball down
the field, or more generally, to make a “big play.” Historically, this is closely correlated with
a team’s likelihood of both getting to the Superbowl and winning it. Other factors that people think are correlated with winning a
Superbowl are not. The league’s best
running attack almost never wins the championship. Neither does the league’s best scoring
defense. There is nothing detrimental,
in football terms, with either of these qualities, of course. A great defense may carry you deep into the
playoffs, for example. It just doesn’t
put the ring on your finger. This is why
MVPs tend to have names like Brady, Montana, Bradshaw and Manning.
Since the AYP is easy to calculate, I also figure the defensive AYP for playoff teams. This would be the adjusted yards/pass for a
team’s opponents over the course of the season.
I don’t believe it’s nearly as important as the offensive AYP, but it is
suggestive of the quality of a pass defense.
A defense that records 25 interceptions over a season is probably better
than a defense with 8. I assume it is,
in any case.
I also note point differential, prior meetings between
teams, injuries, and other items. Then I
tell you who’s going to win. And as you
know, I’ve never been wrong.
The Pretenders---Pittsburgh, Houston, Oakland, Miami,
Green Bay and Detroit.
Some of these are obvious.
There are three teams that have been outscored over the course of the
season: Houston, Miami and Detroit. Nobody
is picking these guys to get very far.
Oakland’s AYP is 6.2, the second-best in the AFC, so they would normally
merit at least some grudging respect in the tournament, but the injury to Mr.
Carr, their quarterback, and their lack of a competent backup, renders them a
non-factor. They scored only 6 points in
an important Week 17 game, and they are listed as dogs to the pitiful
Oilers. Woulda coulda shoulda.
The presence of Green Bay and Pittsburgh on the “obvious
loser” list may be a bit of a surprise for some, especially since they have
(combined) won their last 13 regular-season games. They also each feature a QB in possession of
Superbowl jewelry. The AYP for these teams
is the story, however. Pittsburgh’s is
5.8 and Green Bay’s is 6.1, and these numbers put them each no better than 5th-best
in the AFC and NFC respectively. Their
defensive AYPs also put them near the bottom of the playoff-team defensive AYP
list. Finally, Green Bay has outscored
its opponents by only 2 ½ points and Pittsburgh’s point differential is just 4
½. Neither of these teams has made a
habit of crushing their opposition, and that is NOT a good sign.
(A side note: as Bill James first demonstrated, the hallmark
of a good team is its record in lop-sided games, not close ones. In baseball, a team’s record in one-run games
is often cited as a measure of quality, but in fact, one-run games are usually
decided in a single lucky moment. Thus,
teams with a great record in one-run games in one year usually revert to the
mean in the following year. James
pointed out, however, that a team with a great record in games decided by 4
runs usually gets to the playoffs, and will probably get to the playoffs the
following year as well. Since James did
this research, it has been done in other sports, and the results are largely
the same. Good teams may or may not
squeak past other good teams; what they usually do, however, is crush the
weaklings.)
Could Get Lucky---KC, Seattle, NYG.
These teams are in this category for different reasons. KC makes the list because they have the
second-best numbers in the AFC, even though they are far behind New
England. KC’s 6.1 AYP qualifies as the
third best in the AFC, and their 5.1 defensive AYP is the best in the tournament. Also, assuming they will have to play the
Patriots, they get to wait until the 3rd week of the playoffs to do
so. I’m not looking for 2017 to be the
year Andy Reid finally breaks through, but if the obvious favorites stumble, KC
is well positioned.
Seattle has the third-best AYP in the NFC and the third-best
defensive AYP. Also, of the teams that
have to play in the wild-card round, the Seahawks appear to have at least a
plausible path to glory. They’re still
Seattle, for one thing, and their secondary gives them a chance against
pass-heavy teams like Detroit (an easy match-up) and Atlanta, their certain 2nd
round opponent (assuming the win over the Lions). Then they would have to (probably) beat both
Dallas and New England, of course, so maybe “Could Get Lucky” seems a bit of a stretch. Still….
As for the Giants, they have the worst AYP in the NFC (though they do have the best defensive AYP). In addition, they have only outscored their opponents
by 1.5 points per game. If science is my
grail, this un-scary 11 – 5 wild card team is worthy of very little respect. Why then, would I give them at least half a
chance to surprise?
There is one reason I put them on the Could Get Lucky list. It’s because they have gotten lucky
before. I wrote them off completely in
both 2008 and 2012, and they won the Superbowl both times. In 2008, you may recall that Eli was the guy
who took the trophy away from the 18 – 0 Patriots. That was a year the Giants went 10 – 6.
The Contenders---New England, Dallas, Atlanta.
New England’s numbers dominate the AFC playoff list. They outscored their foes by 12 points per
game; the next best (KC) was 5 points.
The Patriots’ AYP is 7.7; second place is KC with 6.1. Their defensive AYP is 5.3, which is merely on
par with all the others, but certainly not worse. They have won seven games in a row, all by at
least a touchdown, and the last time they had a close game was their loss to
Seattle, 31-24, on November 13. And, of
course, they don’t have to leave New England until they head off to the
Superbowl.
The highest AYP in the league, however, is 8.1 and it does
not belong to the Patriots, but to the Falcons, who outscored opponents by 8.5
points per game. In the past, I have
described Matt Ryan as a “mutt,” and for good reason. His history is that of coming up small in the
biggest spots, and this year may prove no different. Ryan has never come close to putting up the
kind of passing numbers he did this year, however. Second only to Drew Brees in total yards,
Ryan achieved a league-leading 117.1 QB rating (Brady was 2nd at
112.2). Ryan’s 38/7 TD/INT ratio also
jumps off the stat page, though Rodgers’ 40/7 and Brady’s 28/2 cannot, under
current federal regulations, be described as “chopped liver.” Is it possible Matt Ryan has finally figured
it all out? Is it possible the team
around him (e.g., Devonta Freeman as an emerging star all-purpose back), is
good enough to challenge for the top prize?
Is it possible that the defense, though not great, is adequate? Yep.
It is possible.
Then there’s the stinkin Cowboys, and while they come in
second to the Falcons in the NFC, they are by far the best of the rest. Point differential is 7. AYP is 6.9 (behind Atlanta but way ahead of
Seattle’s 3rd-best 6.2). Then
there is the best running game in the playoffs, featuring Ezekiel Elliott. THE GREATEST OFFENSIVE LINE IN THE HISTORY OF
THE WORLD, however, is somewhat beat up at the moment, and they were more than
a little over-rated even when everybody was healthy. Also, the next time a rookie quarterback wins
the Superbowl, he will be the first rookie quarterback to do so. (Listening, Dak?)
Still, if you’re looking for somebody to tell you the
stinkin Cowboys have no shot, you’ll have to look elsewhere.
WILDCARD GAMES
Oakland @ Houston (-3 ½)
Oakland is starting a QB who has never started an NFL
game. Houston has tapped Osweiler who,
while he has played 15 games this year, brings in a personal AYP of 4.2, with
15 TD passes, 16 INTs and a QB rating of 72.2.
You don’t usually see NFL passer ratings that low because guys who put
up numbers like that don’t get to play anymore.
But he’s the best the Texans have to offer.
This could be an ugly game, and I would take Houston if I
had to choose, just because they are at home.
I pass.
Consider the total, however, which is 36.5. The Texans only averaged about 20 points/game
when they were reasonably healthy, and it may not be possible for Oakland to
score at all. I go UNDER the 36.5
Detroit @ Seattle (-8)
Stafford has not played well since he hurt his finger a few
weeks ago, and Detroit has lost their last three games. In addition, while the Seattle pass defense
ain’t what it used to be, Detroit is just the sort of pass-dependent squad the
Seahawks are capable of devouring. What bothers
me is laying 8 points with the suddenly-anemic Seattle offense. I will be amazed if the Lions win this, but
it may turn out to be a low-scoring game with Detroit staying close
throughout. Pass.
Miami @ Pittsburgh (-10)
Miami beat Pittsburgh 30 – 15 on October 26 in Miami. Roethlisberger got banged around some and did
not play the entire game. Also, this was
before the Steelers somehow found their qi and won the last seven games of the
season.
Still…. This does not
appear to be the sort of Dolphins team that, every six years or so, gets lucky
enough to qualify as the loser of a wildcard game before slithering back into
the python-infested muck of the Everglades for another half a decade of
obscurity and 5 – 11 seasons. One looks
at the 2016-17 Fish, checklist in hand, and one’s pencil begins to dance across
the page. Defensive line? Check.
Secondary? Check. Offensive line? Yeah, sort-of. Running game? Check. Quarterback?
Well, there are worse QBs who have won the Superbowl, and at least this
one is not named Chad.
(Beginning in 2002, state law in Florida provided that the
starting quarterback for the Miami Dolphins could only be named Chad. The statute was passed by Democrats bitter
over the “hanging chads” that they believed had denied Al Gore the presidency
in 2000. In 2014, Governor Rick Scott, a Republican, finally
signed a bill repealing this law and permitting Ryan Tannehill to start for the
Fish.)
I’m not predicting the Dolphins will win the Superbowl, and
I’m not even predicting they will beat the Steelers. I am saying that the Dolphins now have a real
football team that belongs in the playoffs.
It is also a team that beat these Pittsburghers two months ago and now
is getting ten points.
I know Pittsburgh is a real playoff team, and I know they’ve
won 7 in a row or 23 in a row or 126 games in a row, or whatever the hell it
is, and I also know there are some meaningful injuries to various Dolphins,
including Tannehill. Nevertheless, I’m
taking the points.
New York Giants @ Green Bay (-5 ½)
Trivia question: What two things do these guys all have
in common---
Bart Starr, Joe Namath, Len Dawson, John Unitas, Roger
Staubach, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Ken Stabler, Jim Plunkett, Joe Montana, Joe
Thiesmann, Jim McMahon, Phil Simms, Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien,
Troy Aikman, Brett Favre, John Elway, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady,
Brad Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers,
Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson?
Answer: They are 1) Superbowl-winning quarterbacks, and
2) the best quarterbacks in their families.
Earlier, I mentioned 2008, when Eli Manning took his 10 – 6 Giants
to the dance and beat the undefeated New England Patriots. In 2012, Eli did it again, this time with a 9
– 7 squad against the 15 – 3 Pats. New England
had a well-known quarterback in both these games. You may even have heard of him. Tom Brady has won four of the six Superbowls
he has started. The only two he lost
were to Eli.
My point is: it’s apparently very hard to get ANY respect in
the NFL if you are not the best quarterback in your family, even if you are the only guy to beat Tom
Brady in a Superbowl, and you’ve done it twice!!!!!!
Ah, but this is Lambeau, you say. This is the freakin frozen tundra! And Aaron Rodgers is playing for the Packers
and he promised they would win their last six games and then they won their
last six games! I mean, Holy
Prognostication, Batman!!!!
Well if that’s what you think, then return with me to
yesteryear, little grasshopper. In
particular, to 2008 and 2012. Brady and
the Pats were not the only team Eli beat in those years. The path to the Superbowl is always a jagged
and uneven journey, fraught with hippogriffs and tsunamis and even tundras.
On January 20, 2008, the Giants donned warm sweaters for
their trip to Lambeau Field and the NFC Championship Game, because the
temperature that day was absolute zero and all molecular and atomic movement
had ceased two hours before kickoff. Nevertheless, the despised Eli Manning felled
the legendary Brett Favre (maybe you’ve heard of him too), in a thrilling 23 –
20 overtime victory.
A fluke, you say? Let’s
climb into the Wayback Machine once again and visit the frozen frickin
tundra on January 15, 2012. This
time, we watch the Divisional Playoff as Eli and his helpers (they were 9 – 7,
remember), demolish the 15 – 1 Green Bay Packers by a 37 – 20 tally. The temperature that day was not recorded
officially because all mercury in the state of Wisconsin had frozen solid a
couple days before Christmas, but the paper reported that one of the Packers
fans in attendance had described the weather that day as “a bit chilly.” Oh, and the GB QB? That was a guy named Aaron Rodgers.
I’m taking the Giants in this game, in case you haven’t
guessed. I love the 5 ½ points I’m
getting, but I will be disappointed if the NY Giants don’t win outright.
There’s even a 911 truther angle to this game, as was
explained to me by the guy who delivers Pepsi products at my Target. The Giants, see, well, they’re from New York
so that’s an obvious 911 team, and then there’s the Patriots, and they’re called the Patriots so that’s patriotic,
and plus they’re from Boston where most of the terrorists took off from on 911.
That’s why, five years after 911, in 2008, the New York
Giants beat the Patriots (who are actually sort-of the terrorists). And then five years later, on the tenth
anniversary of 911 (in 2012), the New Yorkers did it again against the same
damn Patriot/Terrorists.
All of this sets us up for the Superbowl this year, which
will be the 15th anniversary of 911 (in a way). It has to be the Giants and it has to be the
Patriots in the Superbowl this year. And
Eli gets another ring.
Works for me, though I suggest you not stare too deeply into
the calendar work that gets you celebrating the fifth anniversary of 9-11-01 in
February of 2008. Equating the Patriots
with al-Qaeda, with Belichick as Osama bin Laden---well, I suspect that does get
a few nods from the gallery.
Copyright2017MichaelKubacki
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