Houston @ KC (-8)
I may have been pushing the limits a bit (for shock value), when I labeled the KC Chiefs a “pretender” this year. They did get the first week off and they don’t have to hit the road until the Super Bowl, so they have certain advantages. But when you start matching them up statistically against the other teams (Houston, for example), you begin to see their shortcomings.
Adjusted Yards per Pass (AYP) is the most important number I look at in these analyses, and of all fourteen teams in the playoffs, there is only one team with a (slightly) worse number than the Chiefs. Houston brings a 5.1, while KC is at 5.3. On the other side of the ball, I noted last week that Houston may have the best pass defense in the NFL (which they demonstrated by crushing the Chargers), and it is far superior to the pass defense of the Chiefs.
Yes, KC won fifteen games and Houston only ten. And yes, KC outscored its opponents by a field goal per game while Houston did not. But this is clearly an off-year for Mahomes, whose season-long QB rating is just 93.5, a hair above Stroud’s 90. 7 for Houston.
On December 21, KC beat Houston 27-19 in a game largely decided by a poor performance (two interceptions) by Stroud. The Chiefs might beat them again, though I think Houston has a real shot at winning outright. In any event, the eight-point line is wrong. Take the points.
Washington @ Detroit (-9)
This game presents one of the more difficult tasks in handicapping, and it is a task that separates the genius handicappers from the guys like me who have a pet theory and write a couple articles per year. There’s really no question that Detroit has a better football team than Washington does, but is it more or less than nine points better in a second-round playoff game on January 18, 2025?
The ability to make such distinctions, in many sports and games, is often what separates the brilliant player from the merely good one. In backgammon, for example, knowing that your position will win 70% of the time (as opposed to, say, 80%), is what makes you a world-class player. In Texas Hold-Em, if you believe your hand will be a winner 65% of the time but it will actually win only 53% of the time, you will never make a final table at the WSOP.
Detroit’s AYP is 7.0. Washington’s is 6.1. Detroit’s defensive AYP is 5.5, which is a bit better than Washington’s 5.8. The Lions outscored their opponents by 13.1 PPG. The Redskins outscored theirs by 5.5. Detroit is 7-0 in blowouts this year; Washington is 4-1.
I cannot translate this into a 6-point spread or a 9-point spread or a 15-point spread. What I can say, however, is that 9 points seems like a lot to give a team that, with Jayden Daniels, can throw the ball down the field and score points. Jared Goff, with a QB rating of 111.8, is having a career year, but Daniels rating of 100.8 is quite wonderful as well.
The rational player will pass this game, but since I am not rational, I don’t have that option. Therefore, I will take the points with the Redskins.
LA Rams @ Philly (-5.5)
Fans may look at the Rams’ pounding of Minnesota and Philly’s ugly win against Green Bay as opening a door for a possible L.A. win. I understand that view but do not share it.
Stafford’s performance against the Vikings was competent but not brilliant. He was 19 for 27 for 209 yards with no interceptions for a QB rating of 72.5. The reason for L.A.’s triumph was not Stafford but the terrible performance of Sam Darnold of the Vikings, who was sacked nine times.
On the other side, the Eagles won and covered against the Packers. However, Jalen Hurts, back from his concussion two weeks ago, performed so dreadfully that his receivers were organizing book club meetings on the sidelines during the game. Philly fans are concerned because, at some point, Hurts will need to play like an NFL quarterback or the Eagles will not make it to New Orleans.
But he probably will. His QB rating for the year was 103.7, and we can expect that a simple reversion to the mean will bring him much closer to that level. It is fair to expect he will play better this week than he did last week, which may have been his worst game of the season.
And if he brings something like “his game,” that will be good enough. The overall numbers for these teams tell me the Eagles are better.
Philly’s AYP of 6.5 beats the Rams’ 6.1---a small difference. But Philly dominates every other category. The Philly defensive AYP is the best in the NFC, with the Rams near the bottom of the list. The Iggles outscored opponents by almost ten points per game while the Rams were outscored. In blowouts, the Rams were 0-2 while the Iggles were 6-1, including a 37-20 victory over the Rams on November 25.
Lay the points and take those Birds.
Baltimore @ Buffalo (-1)
These are the two best teams in the AFC. They blow out opponents regularly and they both outscore their foes by almost ten points per game. Neither has a great pass defense, but both can do the job well enough to get to a Super Bowl.
What they both do extremely well is the thing that, year-after-year, puts teams in the Superbowl. They throw the ball down the field, complete long passes, and score a lot of points. They are the only two teams in the AFC to have scored more than 500 points during the regular season. (Only Detroit, in the NFC, has scored more.)
The only significant difference I see is in the quarterbacks. Josh Allen has had a great year, with a QB rating of 101.4 (his career rating is 93.4). Lamar Jackson, however, has truly had one of the greatest years in NFL quarterback history. His rating of 119.6 is just not a number you see. And these individual performances are reflected in the AYP for each team over the course of the season. Baltimore’s is 8.0 Adjusted Yards per Pass, best in the NFL. Buffalo, at 6.9 AYP, has the third-best number.
Baltimore is better, and will win this game. It will be another bitter winter for the Buffalo Bills, a team that has had more than its share.
Copyright2025MichaelKubacki
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